A DID Empirical Analysis of The Impact of Urban Purchase Restrictions on Residents' Consumption Structure

Abstract

To assess the dynamic impact of the housing purchase restriction policy on the consumption structure of residents and its mechanism of action, this study constructs a theoretical analysis framework that includes the mediating effect of housing prices. Based on the urban panel data of Beijing from 2010 to 2023, we conducted an empirical test using the difference-in-differences method. The research results show that the impact of purchase restrictions on the consumption structure of residents has significant dynamic characteristics. Benchmark regression indicates that after controlling for a series of urban economic characteristics, the direct effect of the policy is not significant, but its indirect effect generated by suppressing housing prices is intricately intertwined with wealth effect, crowding-out effect and mortgage effect. Both the parallel trend test and a series of robustness tests support the reliability of the above findings. Further mechanism analysis confirmed that housing prices are the key intermediary channel through which purchase restrictions affect the consumption structure. This study reveals the intrinsic path by which macro housing regulation policies influence micro household consumption decisions, emphasizing that future policy-making should fully consider their heterogeneity and dynamic impact on residents' consumption, in order to achieve the dual goals of stable and healthy development of the real estate market and upgrading of the consumption structure in a coordinated manner.